Anjar Priandoyo

Catatan Setiap Hari

How to attack a theory

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Counter Attack
Theory says: kemiskinan menciptakan kejahatan
Evidence: most of crime (in term of frequency) happen on poor area
Usage: to prevent crime, poverty alleviation is required

Critics: kemiskinan tidak menciptakan kejahatan, ignorance menciptakan kejahatan
Evidence: some of biggest crime (in term of amount) happen on rich area
Usage: to prevent crime, education is required

Sub Counter Attack
Theory says: kemiskinan menciptakan kejahatan
Sub Theory says: pengangguran menciptakan kemiskinan
Sub Theory says: pengangguran menciptakan kejahatan

Evidence: most of crime (in term of frequency) happen on poor area, conducted by jobless people
Usage: to prevent crime, mass employment is required

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Agustus 23, 2017 at 4:24 pm

Ditulis dalam Society

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Why sociological theory is easy to be argued

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Causation is a belief concept. People might believe that saving make people rich, saving cause rich. However this belief is not always true. When people save money, at certain amount they will consume into something that is not useful, for example they buy car. The car need gas, need insurance and at some point is broken and it makes that people poor.

However in research (argumentative, opinion based writing), people might argue that saving will make people to live frugal, therefore saving will not make people buy expensive car. The proponent of this theory will explain that if people always save money they will be rich, if people save 20% of its income for duration 10 years they will reach 1,000 USD (for example, that is quantitative analysis). The scholar that use this research might argue that if a society does not save, they will become poor.

Let see MLP theory, criticized by Levidow and Upham (2017)

  • Niche-innovations build up internal momentum, through learning processes, price/performance improvements, and support from powerful groups,
  • Landscape-level changes create pressure on the regime and
  • Regime destabilisation creates opportunities for niche innovations

When the theory wrong
This theory might be wrong if there is one example that can prove each causation belief is wrong. For example, in MLP case, landscape-level changes not always create pressure e.g palm oil pressure in Indonesia, although international NGO give pressures, nothing happen. Regime destabilisation is prove to be wrong, for example with NEP 2006, but no results. So there must be another explanation which not based on MLP

When the theory right
Well in some cases such as geothermal might be right (maybe)

Is it useful?
Always, to explain the layer of transition . Belief that transition occur in multilayer.

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Agustus 23, 2017 at 4:16 pm

Ditulis dalam Society

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Because vs Cause

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Poverty cause crime. Cause (v)
The cause of crime is poverty. Cause (n)

Poverty has an impact on the community because it destroys entire communities.
Poverty has an impact on the community because Poverty destroys entire communities. Because (conj)

‘Cause as variation of Because
I am so angry because of you.
I am so angry ’cause of you
You make me so angry

Because of (Preposition)

Preposition (kata depan e.g di ke dari)
Conjection (kata penghubung / kata sambung e.g misal (coordinating), setelah (subordinating)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_usage_controversies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_English_usage_misconceptions

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/some

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Agustus 23, 2017 at 3:06 pm

Ditulis dalam Management

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Penipuan Investasi 2010s

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The biggest lie is telling truth unconvincingly (Robert A Heinlen)

Fraud menurut Bank Indonesia adalah tindakan penyimpangan atau pembiaran yang sengaja dilakukan untuk mengelabui, menipu, atau memanipulasi Bank, nasabah, atau pihak lain, yang terjadi di lingkungan Bank dan/atau menggunakan sarana Bank

Investasi Bodong (2013-2014)
Cipaganti 3,2T
GBI 1,2T (Gold Bullion Indonesia)
Peresseia Mazekadwisapta Abadi 3T 21 May 2013 Budi Lasmono (Primaz)
Dream for Freedom 3.5T, 700,000 peserta
United Nations Swissindo World Trust International Orbit (UN Swissindo) Start 2012

Dream for Freedom
6 Jan 2015: Berdiri (30% return per bulan)
Juli 2015: Flag, (howmoneyindonesia.com)
Jan 2016: Macet
Feb 2016: 700,000 member
16 Feb 2016: Offline system
23 Jun 2016: Izin dicabut
19 Oct 2016: Fili Muttaqien tersangka

Cipaganti
Maret 2012
15 Juli 2015, Bos divonis 18 tahun

Peresseia Mazekadwisapta Abadi 3T 21 May 2013 Budi Lasmono (Primaz)
April 2013: Macet
May 2013: Polisi

PT Dua Belas Suku (DBS) Blitar 637 M
8 Nov 2014 Larangan OJK
12 April 2014 Polisi, Jefry Christian Daniel

Arisan MMM
Agustus 2014: Larangan OJK

Koperasi Pandawa
2012 mulai investasi (Enny, 10% per bulan dari 350 juta)
April 2015, Izin koperasi
Feb 2017, Macet
15 Nov 2017, dihentikan Satgas Waspada Investasi OJK
20 Feb 2017, Salman Nuryanto tersangka

Cakrabuana Sukes Indonesia (CSI)
30 September 2016 Fatwa MUI 41/MUI/Kab.Cirebon/IX/2016
1 November 2016 Larangan OJK SP 110/DKNS/OJK/XI/2016

First Travel
Maret 2017, Macet (jamaah umrah terlantar)
9 Agustus 2017, Anniesa Hasibuan dan Andika Surachman tersangka

Koperasi Karangasem Membangun (KKM)
2006 Berdiri (return 30%)
Feb 2009 72,000 nasabah (simpanan 700 milyar avg, 10 juta)
Mar 2009 Macet

PT Qurnia Subur Alam Raya (QSAR) tahun 2002, yang konon menggelapkan dana mencapai sekitar Rp550 miliar rupiah

Profiling customer
Educated, Retirement ref

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_trick

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Agustus 23, 2017 at 1:07 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

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Anatomy of Deception

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Deception is a complex social construction. Deception involves two major component: Convincing Argument, Complex Scheme and Voluntary Action. Every deception always begins with convincing arguments such as higher interest rate is because the business is efficient. For example, a person might ask to invest in his business and he gives a 10% return a years, which is higher than normal time deposit of 6%.

Convincing argument can take several forms such as

1.Complex Scheme
First Travel for example, might say to its customer that the trip would be performed next year.

2.Time Binding Scheme
A person might says that the price will be increased next month, suggesting the customer to buy to product/service as soon as possible.

3.Emotional related Scheme
This to help people.

Voluntary Action
At the end, deception only can be happened if there is a voluntary action from the customer

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Agustus 23, 2017 at 10:10 am

Ditulis dalam Life

Kamus Perbankan Indonesia Inggris

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Jargon yang lebih populer bahasa Indonesianya:

  • Tabungan = Saving Account
  • Giro = Current Account
  • CASA = Customer Account Saving Account
  • Deposito = Fixed Deposit (Term Deposit / Time Deposit in CA, NZ, AU, US; Bond in UK)

Jargon yang lebih populer bahasa Inggrisnya:

  • Overdraft = Saldo Negatif = Cerukan (Ceruk = Niche)
  • Loopholes = Celah Hukum

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Agustus 23, 2017 at 10:10 am

Ditulis dalam Science

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Revisi itu 10 kali lebih sulit

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Revisi itu 10x lebih sulit

Beberapa penulis mengatakan bahwa revisi itu 2 kali lebih sulit daripada menulis. Jadi kalau biasa menulis dalam waktu 1 jam, maka waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk merevisi itu paling tidak 2 jam. Penulis yang lain bahkan mengatakan revisi itu 10 kali lebih sulit, artinya menulis butuh waktu 1 hari, namun setelah ada revisi bisa memakan waktu hingga 10 hari.

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Agustus 22, 2017 at 4:26 pm

Ditulis dalam Life

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