We were soldiers (2002) is one of the Mel Gibson movie, which dubbed by my military friends as the best war movie ever. His reason? its almost accurately depicted the real life of soldier especially the depiction of family, about feeling and the biggest worry of soldier. Which in conclusion he said that we all the same, a soldier.
On the economist, I think we are all the same. We are making calculation on the scarce resources: our age/life. We making decision, we try to make conclusion for the economic goals. A food stall seller in small city is as good as businessman doing transnational business, is as good as Phd educated people in logic of economics.
There is no difference.
Indeed, lets start with JEL (Journal of Economics Classification), my favorite would be Q4 (Energy Economics) and Q5 (Environment Economics). But economics which is study of the allocation of scarce resources is not limited to finance, country, energy or environment. There is health economics, public or urban economics.
The goal of economic study is simple. For micro scale the goal is to achieve efficiency and equity (fair distribution). For macro scale the goal is stability, growth and full employment (human at the end). It is the same goal for everyone (rich and prosper), for politician (fair and growth), for manager or owner (sustainable).
How much does Indonesia’s oil reserve?
Oil reserve usually refer to ‘Proven’ Oil Reserves. Which if you see any report for example BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015, it’s around 4 billion barrel. (Actually in the report is 5.0 in 1994, 4.3 in 2004 and 3.7 at end of 2013). So within 50 years we have been consuming around 23 billion barrel. See the math if maximum lifting Indonesia ever is around 1.6 million bopd, which currently is around 800,000 bopd.
How much does potential Indonesia’s oil reserve?
Well it can be 50 billion barrel or more.
How about other energy?
Gas is around 101 trillion CF, Coal about 28 billion tonnes.
MC Kinsey 10 ideas to reshape Indonesia Energy
Geothermal 28 GW, Realization 1000 MW
Biomass 32-50 GW, Realization 440 MW
(Palm Oil Waste 12 GW)
Hydro 75 GW, Realization 4200 MW
MicroHydro 500 MW
Wind Turbine 9 GW
Ocean Energy (10-35 MW /km Coastline)
Solar Energy (4.8 kWh/m2/day)
Indonesia is potential country. It has big potential for renewable energy, if you ask any geologist, climatologist or any earth scientist. Well, in that case, potential can be means nothing. For example we have an amount of young Indonesian that win gold medal in Olympiad in overseas but does it guarantee that we will receive noble or have a high tech research laboratory? well in that case it mean nothing.
Potential should be connected to industry. For example sport, if we are good at football, then the football industry should be good. Each of them is connected. Without good industry there would be good player.
Some of successful industry in Indonesia is badminton, it has good player, good industry. It can generate revenue from advertising, and all end to end of this business chain is live. The same happened with tourism, it has potential, it has industry player (hotel, restaurant), it has customer, it is perfectly located in Bali.
To successfully plan something, people should know what is the ecosystem that required to achieve it.
Once upon a time, there was a little princess that live in kingdom far far away. The little princess is very lazy. She always sleep late at night and wake up very late in the morning. In normal day, little princess sleep at 11 pm and she wake up at 11 am. Little princess is also does not want to help his parents, does not want to clean her room. All she want to do is just playing and does not want to hear her parents advice.
One day, the little princess mother is cross with her
“Why you always wake up very late princess, you just like a bat”
“Why don’t you clean your room”
Suddenly the little princess has an idea. She went to palace witch and asking for a magic potion to change her into a bat
“Are you sure you want to be bat princess?” said the palace witch.
Little princess nodding and said the reason. The witch agree and give her a magical potion in a bottle. Little princess is very happy and put the potion in her room. She put the bottle in her room and planning to drink the potion after lunch. Yup, it was 1 am and she is very hungry. So she goes to dining room to have a large meal.
Suddenly the little brother come into her room, and thinking that it was a juice a drink it. Little brother accidentally become a bat. Little brother scared and hide to his own room.
After having a lunch, little princess going back to her room and found the potion missing.
“Oh no, the potion missing, what should I do”
Little princess than going back to palace witch. Palace witch said that it can be made again, unless the bat is found. Its need to make the bat become normal again, and witch can make another potion.
So little princess told all kingdom knight to help her found that bat.
“Oo majesty, our kingdom is so big, if you want to found the bat, you need to do it early in the morning” said the guard. The bat is nocturnal, they hunt in the night but sleep in the morning. So in the morning you can find it.
So the next day, early in the morning the little princess wake up and looking for a bat in cave but she found nothing. The next day she goes to apple garden, because bat like fruit. The little princess is surprised to see the apple garden in morning, is very fresh, she can not found the potion bat, but she really enjoy playing in the garden.
However after a week searching for a bat, the little princess got tired. She can not find that little bat. And she realize that something is missing. Yup, her little brother. It was fun to explore the garden. But it was even more fun to play and explore it with her little brother. But where is her little brother.
So little princess went to her little brother room and start to realize that his little brother is missing for a week. And when Little princess is looking in her little brother room, she found a scary bat in the corner
“Ah I see, you are that little bat, you are my little brother” little princess scream happily.
So after going to palace witch, everything become normal again.
“Are you still want some bat potion princess? the palace witch is asking little princess. The little princess smile. “No of course, I don’t want to sleep late in the night, I want to wake up early in the morning and play with my brother”
So after that the little princess is always wake up early, always clean her room and play with her little brother. And they live happily.
Notes: 600 words story, doing in 5 minutes, for my children last night. Their problem? fighting and does not want go to sleep :)
My father was born in 1950s, My uncle in 1960s and my cousin in 1970s. In the three decades of 70s, 80s and 90s my father work as factory employee making cigarettes. He did not know about bank, did not making any investment and well, it retired un-peacefully because of 98 crisis. Looking at his performance and his children performance, he is success.
My uncle born in 1960s things different because he has a chance to go to university in 80s. So economically is better from him. He begin to enjoy the benefit of having high education in 90s. But 2000s is nightmare because of financial crisis, and his last decade is fatal. With sickness, mismanagement in family everything in 2010s is getting worse.
My cousin born in 1970s, everything is different now. In 90s everyone going to university. Even there are a lot of new university is opened. 90s period is very bright for her. Although she has not accumulated wealth but things is different. But when she begin to grow in 2000s, it is fatal, 2010s is far more fatal and 2020s is would be the worst stage of her life
Now it is 2010s, my father is 60, my uncle is 50 and my cousin is 40. The cycle of life is interesting with unlimited possibilities. There would be a different story than family that maybe 180′ different than my story. But it has similar story: Crisis is (sometimes) overrated, some family would survive with crisis, but some family has nothing to do with crisis.
Personally I would say that what ever world crisis should not give me bad feeling about my self. But if other ask me about the crisis, the most important thing is to have empathy.
One more thing to add. In 2010s, there are a number of new university build. At lot of education institution use english as their teaching language, from playgroup to university. It can change dramatically of everything with mobile phone and things. So will course of history change? well some people would not affected by this situation, some people might be just become very rich without this stuff.
Overall, it was the same story, generation by generation.
Finally, it was said that almost 4 year waiting. ASEAN’s biggest coal power plant is inaugurated by Jokowi today. Several month ago I write the controversy of this power plant to environment, but decision has been made. Let us see the impact of this power plant development. We hope the best for Indonesia.