Anjar Priandoyo

Social Scientist

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Social scientist basically is a modeler. They model the human interactions, the society. To find causation, they can use correlation using primary data such quantitative (survey/questionnaire) or qualitative (interpretation) or secondary data (statistical data)

I am using 910 papers from Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, sorted by most cited paper, and select some papers:

  1. Have a question: How is local autonomy interactions works
  2. Have an assumptions e.g local autonomy is bad
  3. Verified assumptions with interview, survey and case study

Sample of selected papers:

  • The political economy of local governance: Findings from an Indonesian field study (von Luebke, 2009)
  • Rice prices and poverty in Indonesia (McCulloch, 2008)
  • Transformation of the Indonesian Agrifood System and the Future beyond Rice: A Special Issue (Reardon et al, 2015)
  • Growth, Poverty, and Inequality under Jokowi (Yusuf & Summer, 2015)
  • Authoritarian States, Capital-Owning Classes, and the Politics of Newly Industrializing Countries: The Case of Indonesia (Robinson, 1988)

Written by priandoyo

May 2, 2016 at 4:47 pm

Posted in Science

Automotive Industry

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The Indonesia’a Automotive report from KPMG, EMIS and Gaikindo remind me again why capital always win. They build nice and neat report. Any report whether it used for stock markets or academic research

auto-emis

auto-kpmg

Written by priandoyo

April 28, 2016 at 9:20 am

Posted in Business

How to explain scientifically

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I read 2010 NortonRoseFulbright and IAEA report on Indonesia’s Energy. It was nice historical descriptive data. However two question remains:

  1. Why this could happened? there is no single answer, a lot of social theory that can be used
  2. What could be happened? there is a definite answer for this. Because it is calculation/modelling. And our job is to tell the what aspects. not the why.

good, I feel better now.

ref, ref, ref

Written by priandoyo

April 25, 2016 at 6:25 pm

Posted in Life

Energy and environment: Dynamics of energy mix in the energy transition

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Alternative Title:

  • Dynamics of energy transitions under changing socioeconomic, technological and climate conditions
  • Critical roles of energy mix in reaching emission reduction and energy security/availability/supply

Dynamics Analysis Methodology:

  • The guess: transition of energy can be explained as a dynamics process (is not statics). The test: historical data + scenario analysis:
  • Framing Scenario (Low cost/high carbon/coal, low emission/low carbon/renewable)
  • Strategy Development
  • Results Analysis

The Guess and The Test
the guess: medicine reduce plants growth
the test: test the effect of medice on plants

the guess: energy mix will be affected by output effect and energy intensity ref
the test: historical data of industry output, historical data of energy consumption / intensity

the guess: energy mix will be affected by supply disruption/dependency, diversification (Indriyanto)
the test: historical data of supply

the guess: energy mix will be affected by policitical, economy and technological (Strunz, 2014)

Reference:

  • Dynamics of energy transitions under changing socioeconomic, technological and climate conditions in Northwest Germany (Ruth et al 2015)
  • The critical role of the industrial sector in reaching long-term emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable targets (Faiz et al 2016)

Illustrations:
energy-trend

graph-transition

mix

Written by priandoyo

April 25, 2016 at 5:07 pm

Posted in Science

The complicated case of energy in Indonesia

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Coba, urusan menanam tebu atau singkong kan bukan domain kami, itu wilayah (Kementrian) Pertanian. Urusan koperasinya juga ada di tempat lain, begitu juga skala industrinya di (Kementrian) Perindustrian, dan seterusnya,” Kardaya Warnika
[BBC 2012][1]

Capital is simply the most important aspects in the world. Business established to make money. Economy designed to create money. However in this modern world, we should consider the basic foundation of the world: people. The relations between capital and people can be analyze from several perspective. Marx can see it as conflict between human, while Durkheim can see it as function between people.

From energy perspectives. It is simple: we need to use the clean energy. Because fossil fuel is depleted and bad for environment. So what is the solutions? trillion of them and its complicated. To understand this complexity we need to see the basic interactions: economy. What people did for their life.

Indonesia:

  • Farmer 26 mill, Fisherman 2.2 mill (BPS 2013)
  • Poor People 28 mill, 11% total population

Complicated case of Economy: Capital & Labour:
Industry is the biggest contributor for GDP estimated for 23.37% but labour absorption is only 13.88%

US Dept Agri: Ref, Ref, Ref

Written by priandoyo

April 25, 2016 at 11:38 am

Posted in Science

Tagged with

Indonesia’s Energy Sankey LEAP

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For energy analysts, a more sophisticated approach should be used in order to effectively integrated energy-environment planning into an energy system either local or national level. In addition, the proposed energy simulation software so-called LEAP is described and intended to identify the advantageous and mechanisms in order to perform such an energy model. LEAP can estimate useful energy demand and final energy consumption as well as the demand forecasting

Aumnad Phdungsilp, 2006 Lecture Notes

TIL how powerful is LEAP in Scenario Analysis:

  • Energy system planning (energy balance, energy transition)
  • Energy balance analysis: It can simulate when Indonesia begin importing gas (MEMR estimated in 2019). When balance changed, what is the impact on energy & environment
  • Energy transition analysis: It can simulate when Indonesia begin to use renewable (23% in 2025). When transition happened, what is the impact on energy & environment.
  • Sector level analysis: It can simulate energy demand
  • GHG mitigation analysis: Impact analysis

sankey-Indonesia-2007-leap

Written by priandoyo

April 25, 2016 at 11:32 am

Posted in Science

Tagged with

Indonesia’s Oil Refinery

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Highlight:

  • Oil Refinery Capacity 1.157 MBOPD
  • Fuel Production 0.65 MBOPD (37.7 mill kilo ltr)
  • PKSA Distribution: 10.2 mklt gasoline (premium), 18.5 mklt diesel (solar), 2.3 mklt kerosene, 2.7 mklt avtur
  • Effective size of oil refinery is 0.2 mbopd
  • Singapore is the undisputed oil hub in Asia

produks-BBM-gap

Written by priandoyo

April 25, 2016 at 10:40 am

Posted in Science

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