Indonesia Energy Baseline in 2013: 183 MTOE
Finding the baseline of energy metric is very important steps, because all the analysis and calculation will be based on this number. At first I thought I need to find the correct official number but based on argument that as long as we explain the data source that we use it does not matter and it will not impact the analysis. So here is the official energy baseline number that I will be using.
- Primary Energy : 183 MTOE / 7661 PJ
- Primary Energy Mix : Fossil 92% (Coal 30%, Gas 21%, Oil 41%), Renewable 8%
- Energy Transformation : 231 BOE Coal, 83 BOE Gas, 49 BOE Fuel
- Emission Mix (Reduction)
- Electricity : 18.5 MTOE (216 TWH/51 GW)
- Electricity Mix : Fossil 86%, Renewable 13% (Hydro 9.9%, Geoth 2,6%)
With the baseline number as above, there are several hypothetical question that can be made:
- Q1) Increase primary energy? well it is very difficult, population is increased, demand increased. It is all developing country problem.
- Q2) Increase renewable roles in energy mix? well 8% is too low.
- Q3) Increase electricity production? well, it is same with concern no 1, difficult
Although list of question above seems very difficult, however from study on understanding CO2 emission from the global energy sector it said that energy contribute 40% global emissions, where coal it self contributed 70% emission (where coal actually only 40% in of world production), I think the research in energy environment sector seems promising.
Another things that very important to be noticed during baseline data selection as follows:
- Use top down approach, IEA mention in the report world energy production is 13371 MTOE, the detail number can be different for example 13594 (in IEA breakdown). Choose the number in introduction, description and body of content, and appendix or detailed at the end.
- Analyze selected data, data provided sometimes include assumption that we might missed, for example on 222 MTOE which include biomass
- Mixed data if something goes wrong, if in DEN data detail breakdown is incorrect, then we can choose the secondary data in ESDM for example, on the hydro potential data that different from the introduction 7000 MW to detail appendix which around 4400 MW, the data that I used finally is using ESDM data.