Risk and Scenario Analysis: How to Combine Two Concept
There are a couple of method on energy policy research. It can be using Scenario Analysis, which compare the the results of different scenario and decide which one is the best. Another method is using Causality Analysis which using relation between two or more factor, which close to econometric. Another approach is using Lifecycle Analysis, which tend to use by engineering/natural science research.
Instead from common energy policy method, we can use another concept such as Risk. And in the development of energy policy, Risk concept has been studied by various researcher for example:
- Hitzeroth and Megerle (2013) on Renewable Energy Projects: Acceptance Risks and Their Management, it emphasis the importance of defining the acceptance risk as a prerequisite for its management.
- Zweifel and Bonomo (1995) on Energy Security Coping with Multiple Supply Risk indicated the need to have approach dealing with simultaneous supply riks.
- Sadeghi and Shavvalpour (2006) on Energy risk management and value at risk modelling indicated that within oil markets, Value-at-Risk can be used to quantify the maximum oil price changes associated with a likelihood level. This quantification constitutes a fundamental point when designing risk management strategies
Uncertainty in Scenario Analysis
Combining this two concept can be applied in several approach such as:
– Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Modelling (van Asselt and Rotmans, 2002)
– Scenario Analysis for Uncertainty (Risk) Assessment
– Risk Identification using Scenario Analysis
– Mapping environments at risk under different global climate change scenarios (Saxon et al 2004)