Why Scenario Analysis?
Scenario analysis is effective for these reasons:
1. Uncertainties (e.g Future)
2. Policy (Society/People Dynamics, Multicriteria)
3. Complex System (Environment, Economy, Energy)
Ramirez et al (2015) on Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce “interesting research” stated that Scenario analysis does enable the production of usable, rigorous, and interesting research findings, it also complements established, typically positivist research approaches.
The future of development policy – like everything else involving the future – is full of complexity; developments and shifts in mutual interactions at many levels on the world stage follow courses which are at times unbroken, but also at times disruptive ref
Postma and Liebl (2005) on How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool? analyze the alternative ways for scenario construction. It discusses the use of either recombinant scenarios, context scenarios, or inconsistent scenarios and/or combinations of these scenarios. Scenario analysis is effective in dealing with uncertainties