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Cultural Dimension in Energy Planning: Uncertainty

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I have a thought that there is some relation between cultural dimension of Hofstede on how a country plan their energy. Two dimension that mention are Uncertainty Avoidance and Short Long Term Orientation. For example I thought that energy planning in Indonesia is tend to avoid a short term conflict (use of renewable/emission) which relation with uncertainty avoidance. Another example is on (over) confidence in long term projection that has relation with short-long term orientation. Time and Potential Conflict dimension is two important dimension in energy planning (and TIL I just realize that Hofstede is 4th most cited social scientist.)

One of study Mirakyan and De Guio (2014) on Modelling and uncertainties in integrated energy planning, I found that Uncertainty can be classifed from the perspective of Linguistic, Knowledge, Variability, Decision, Level or Procedural. Moreover this paper indicated that
– Most of reviewed IEPCT studies are deterministic focusing only on average value or central tendency of model states.
– Only model parameter or model inputs are addressed in few studies. Other uncertainties, such as model context uncertainty or uncertainty in ignorance situations, are not discussed in IEPCT literature yet.
– There is a need to identify all aspects of uncertainty, quantify their impact on energy planning and modelling output systematically, and address them explicitly during the planning and modelling process.

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Januari 5, 2016 pada 12:01 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

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