Cultural Dimension in Energy Planning: Uncertainty
I have a thought that there is some relation between cultural dimension of Hofstede on how a country plan their energy. Two dimension that mention are Uncertainty Avoidance and Short Long Term Orientation. For example I thought that energy planning in Indonesia is tend to avoid a short term conflict (use of renewable/emission) which relation with uncertainty avoidance. Another example is on (over) confidence in long term projection that has relation with short-long term orientation. Time and Potential Conflict dimension is two important dimension in energy planning (and TIL I just realize that Hofstede is 4th most cited social scientist.)
One of study Mirakyan and De Guio (2014) on Modelling and uncertainties in integrated energy planning, I found that Uncertainty can be classifed from the perspective of Linguistic, Knowledge, Variability, Decision, Level or Procedural. Moreover this paper indicated that
– Most of reviewed IEPCT studies are deterministic focusing only on average value or central tendency of model states.
– Only model parameter or model inputs are addressed in few studies. Other uncertainties, such as model context uncertainty or uncertainty in ignorance situations, are not discussed in IEPCT literature yet.
– There is a need to identify all aspects of uncertainty, quantify their impact on energy planning and modelling output systematically, and address them explicitly during the planning and modelling process.