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Simple Career Advice for Everyone

Indonesia Energy Crisis Solution

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Energy Crisis:

  • Fuel Import, >50% petroleum is imported
  • Declined Economy
  • Uncontrolled Growth (population, energy consumption)

Options:

  • Reduce fuel consumption (tax, emission)> Cheap, Elitist
  • Reduce fuel subsidy> Cheap, Elitist
  • Making a trade deal> Cheap, Elitist (e.g with China or Japan)
  • Build (small) refinery (refinery can reduce import)> Expensive, Populist
  • Build electric car> Expensive, Populist
  • Build renewable energy> Expensive, Populist

Pre Solutions:

  • Selection of solution is political process. A solution can only be made on country level.
  • Selection of solution would be very slow (bureaucratic)
  • There is possibility that in country as services is not exist. Or exist in the very low performance.
  • When country is not exist, people will not involved.

Solutions: (people as economic agent)

  • Selection of solution is an economic process (transactional). Decision making is a big business, its trade between people voting and people benefit.
  • People would not be interested in Energy Crisis as a problem. (Only some) People would be interested in Energy Crisis as (political) issues to gain power.
  • Consolidating people voting is an economic advantage
  • Selected solutions would be populist

Predictions:

  • Country influence is declined. Country would be ceremonial process.
  • Individual will survive. A new form will be established.

What Science can Help:

  • Modelling: Predicting when the crisis will be happened. E.g crisis will be happened in 2042, 10% population will be died due to environmental damage, 20% will be died due to horizontal conflict.
  • Sociology: Predicting how the crisis will be happened. E.g first its impacted the poor, then the transportation sector. People will change their consumption pattern. People unable to cope with change. Civil War happened. A new political movement created.
  • Natural Science: Predicting that a new energy storage technology that able to store energy longer, cheaper in price and lightweight.

However, science can only predict. Society makes it happened. Society said that any technological transition is costly. It is not cheap. To be able to move to next stage, it is required an accumulation of power and resources

*Notes, the opposite of populist can be elitist or pluralist? anything that against public logic.

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Maret 14, 2016 pada 12:04 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

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