Anjar Priandoyo

Catatan Setiap Hari

Historical Oil Crisis

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Historical Oil Crisis (Hamilton, 2011)

I. 1859-1899: Discovery

  • 1885 Oil in Dutch East Indies explored, 1890 The Royal Dutch Petroleum Company (Shell) Founded

II. 1900-1945: Power and Transportation

  • The West Coast Gasoline Famine of 1920
  • The Great Depression and state regulation 1929

III. 1946-1972: The early postwar era

  • 1947-1948: Postwar dislocations
  • 1952-1953: Supply disruptions and the Korean conflict
  • 1956-1957: Suez Crisis

IV. 1973-1996: The age of OPEC

  • 1973-1974: OPEC Embargo
  • 1978-1979: Iranian revolution
  • 1980-1981: Iran-Iraq War
  • 1981-1986: The great price collapse
  • 1990-1991: First Persian Gulf War

V. 1997-2010: A new industrial age

  • 1997-1998: East Asian Crisis
  • 1999-2000: Resumed growth
  • 2003: Venezuelan unrest and the second Persian Gulf War
  • 2007-2008: Growing demand and stagnant supply

Some background with the stories. Somewhere in 2001 (almost 15 years ago). A friend of mine that got scholarship from one of oil company, he said confidently when I argue that the future of oil is not bright, something like “You know, that even if the news said that Indonesia oil reserve will be depleted somewhere in the future, the hidden reserve is still huge there”.

I have mixed reaction at that time, as someone that did not know about oil, I feel that something wrong. But I did not know what is to be exactly wrong with his statement.

Well, at that time I also did not know that

  • Oil will be depleted in 11 years
  • The declining rate of oil production (lifting) < 900 thbopd
  • The rate of new exploration is decreased (bureaucracy, politics)
  • The increased rate of oil consumption (import)

I also miss a number of fact such as:

  • 1890 Indonesia is the place of birth of Royal Dutch Shell (7th largest oil company)
  • 1942 Indonesia is fourth largest oil producer in the world, and the largest in pacific that lead to japan invasion
  • 1966 Indonesia is the first PSC contract in the world with ARCO, and later change to BP 1971, beginning operations in Indonesia
  • 2004 Indonesia is become net oil importer, resigned from OPEC (2016 said rejoin due to secure Import)

But there are some clue that support me with the argument that oil is no longer the future of Indonesia economy:

  • The intake of Oil study program in university no that high, compare with Electronics or Rising Computer program
  • (which conclude that) The job demand for Oil Industry is not that high compare with other industry, let say banking
  • The economic crisis indicating that any high risk investment business is not feasible in short term (and oil is high cost industry)

I think to predict something, we are not really need a sophisticated tools, especially if it is related with personal decision. The oil industry in early 2000s is not prospectus and it will keep un-prospectus the year after. Its just a glitch in the time.

Shell History IndonesiaWorld, BP


Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Maret 20, 2016 pada 4:15 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

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