Conventional vs Stochastic Energy Planning
I read energy mix planning for energy security & ghg (Thangavelu et al, 2015). It was a very good paper, their main assumptions are “The fuel source/input in the future is uncertain”. Based on their analysis they conclude that
- Conventional (planning school) mix is prone to energy cost & energy security
- Stochastic (emergent school) is superior than conventional energy mix with respect to the energy cost and security. The stochastic optimization provides energy mix and guarantee energy security for all energy demand scenarios considered so that the energy authority has flexibility to choose the right energy mix for the next time period based on latest energy demand prediction
My assumption, Indonesia, currently used bureaucratic and slow decision making process. In NEP 2006, RE mix is 17% by 2025, in NEP 2014, RE mix is 23% by 2025, but in reality even in year 2016, the RE mix is less than 5%. Stochastic mix that flexible might have difficulties to be implemented in Indonesia.
The statement of:
“Conventional energy planning focused on energy cost, GHG emission and renewable contribution based on future energy demand, fuel price, etc. Uncertainty in the projected variables such as energy demand, volatile fuel price and evolution of renewable technologies will influence the cost of energy when projected over a period of 15–30 years” is so true, but if we take a look at historical performance of Indonesia, having a flexible model is challenging.