Anjar Priandoyo

Catatan Setiap Hari

Growth: The Complexity

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Rule #1, each institution has their own assumption

  • According IEA, in South East Asia, Energy Consumption grow at 2% (Industry 2.7%, Transport 1.8% and Building 1.4%).
  • According IEA, in Indonesia. Oil demand grow 1.1%, Gas demand grow 1.9%. Coal supply grow 6.9%, Coal Consumption (Power 9.2%, Industry 0.5%)
  • According to Enerdata, Indonesia around 1.3% (2015).
  • According to BPPT 2016, Energy consumption grow at 4.3% (Industry 5.1%, Transport 6%, Residential 3%). Oil supply decline by 5%

Rule #2, everything has their own purpose

If interpretative growth has no use, so what use is it?
Well in my opinion, do not emphasis that red is better color because it used by 34% instead of green (RGB), or in simple, just dont use it to strength opinion. For example, instead saying that Economy Creative has biggest growth, it is better to see from other point of view, such as it has transferable skills to other industry.

Scientist could make million of correlation on such indicator. For example any growth indicator could be computer with other indicator such as employment growth (urban/rural), sectoral growth (agri, industry, services), population growth.

Implications for Indonesia of Asia’s rise in the global economy, Anderson & Strutt 2015
Sectoral Growth and Job Creation: Evidence from Inesia Suryadarma, Suryahadi, Sumarto 2011

https://www.bps.go.id/linkTabelStatis/view/id/1200
https://www.quora.com/What-sectors-are-the-primary-drivers-of-Indonesia-current-economic-growth-and-what-about-for-the-next-few-decades
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
https://www.quora.com/If-correlation-doesnt-equal-causation-what-use-is-it

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Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Maret 2, 2017 pada 1:10 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

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