Anjar Priandoyo

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Luas area kebakaran hutan

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Ini yang selalu saya khawatirkan dalam penelitian kuantitatif: data yang disajikan tidak bersih. Walau sebenarnya sama seperti penelitian kualitatif, yang banyak interpretasi. Data kuantitatif tidak ada interpretasi, tapi sumber-nya bisa sangat beragam. Contoh mengenai luas lahan kebakaran hutan.

Data kementerian kehutanan, range datanya berkisar dari 2,600 ha (2011) hingga 261,000 ha (2015).
Data Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), berkisar dari 2,000,000 ha (2015) mengacu pada Terra Modis (NASA)
Data Worldbank sekitar 2,600,000 ha (2015, June-Oct)
Data Globalfiredatabase sekitar 2,980,000 ha (2009) dan 383,700 ha (2010)

Dari catatan saya (yang source-nya ketelingsut) sekitar 7,000,000 ha (2010)

http://sipongi.menlhk.go.id/pdf/luas_kebakaran
http://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasional/20151030133801-20-88437/bnpb-kebakaran-hutan-2015-seluas-32-wilayah-dki-jakarta/
https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/seeing-impact-forest-fires-south-sumatra-view-field
http://www.globalfiredata.org/analysis.html

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

April 24, 2017 at 12:24 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

Tagged with

TIL Indonesia Land Size

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According to google 2017, which refer to wikipedia, Indonesia land size is 190 M ha. However the exact number is vary times to times and vary according to who. For example, based on BPS (National Statistics Office) in 2006 is 186 M ha, in 2007 is 191 M ha. Although BPS might provide the most government official data, the most accurate data can be attributed to BIG (Badan Informasi Geospasial) a government body that has a skill to do a geospatial and mapping process which its history can be traced up to 1934 during Dutch Indies.

However, BPS and BIG does not have a legal power upon the control of land. This legal power can be attributed to Badan Pertanahan Nasional (BPN) or National Land Agency. BIG has ability to measure which is very technical, however the control is within BPN. BPN is the one that produce the land use and ownership certificate. BPN is the one that create Land Ownership, Right of Use, Rights on Land.

Complicated? wait, here is the biggest problem. BPN head says
“Indonesia has 180 Mha which consist of 130 Mha forest and 50 Mha non forest. However there are still 45 million hectare of forest and 5 million hectare of non forest that without certificate. The BPN capability to certify the land is only 2 million ha/year, which takes 21 years just to complete this certification”

Land measurement has a problem, which recently become public concern for example tension with neighboring country on the teritorial dispute such as Sipadan & Ligitan. Land certification also a problem as the BPN case above. But it is enough problem? unfortunatelly not. There are still problem left.

The first problem is within the forest area (130 Mha BPN, 120 Mha BPS 2015, 90 Mha World Bank 2010, 90 Mha VP 2016)

According to Ministry of Foresty (Forestry Planology) The distribution of forest in Indonesia as follows, conservation forest (HK) 15%, protection forest (HL) 22%, production forest (HP) 46% convertible production forest (HPK) 17%.

However, forest means money. A forest can be exploited in so many level, for geothermal energy, for tourism, for plantation even can be used as simple as wood industry. There are so many interest on the usage of forest. From local government to national billionaire.

The second problem is within the non forest area (58 Mha World Bank, 41 Mha BPS, 25 Mha BPS optimum). The non forest area can be divided with three part, where each of them has significant problem.

The first problem is on the agriculture.
According to Ministry of Agriculture. Wetland size is only 8 Mha, Dryfield (kebun) is only 11 Mha + 5 Mha (shifting cultivation), and 14 Mha temporary unused agriculture land. The total is around 41 Mha. From the crops mix in 2010, Palm Oil is around 8.3 Mha, Coconut is 3.7 Mha, Rubber is 3.4 Mha, Cocoa is 1.6 Mha. How about the myth of Indonesia rich in agriculture products? Sugar Cane 0.4 Mha, Tea 0.1 Mha, Pepper 0.1 Mha. Surprisingly Coffee is 1.2 Mha.

The second problem is within the housing area
Indonesia need around 1 million house per year (backlog 15 million, ownership backlog 7 million). Currently households size is 60 million, where house is around 40 million. The growth of population impacting the growth of house (which it said affecting another 170 industry, mortgage for sure).

The third and the saddest problem is within industrial area (27 Kha – 30 Kha)
This is the saddest problem, where the Industrial park in Indonesia is very small with a number of infrastructure problem. Well how small is small? other rich country e.g Singapore can easily build an industrial park as big as Indonesia in China with the better design and cheaper price. Or Saudi can built an integrated industrial park with very close proximity with his own industrial strength for example in petrochemical industry. The demand of industrial park in Indonesia is very low, with around 1,000/year

Another problem mentioned:
“…Most of Indonesia‚Äôs industrial land areas or 94% are owned by the private sector. The Indonesian government, through state-owned enterprises, owns 6%. This is in stark contrast with other Asian countries. In Japan, for example, the government owns 85% of the total area of industrial land, Taiwan has 90%, Singapore 85%, Malaysia 78%, South Korea 70%, and Thailand has 53% under state ownership…”

https://finance.detik.com/properti/d-2532638/bpn-butuh-21-tahun-untuk-mensertifikasi-tanah-di-seluruh-indonesia
http://www.kompasiana.com/fikri_alyandra/berapa-sebenarnya-luas-lahan-pertanian-di-indonesia_54f9548ba3331176178b4bbd
https://www.bps.go.id/linkTabelStatis/view/id/1716
http://nasional.kompas.com/read/2016/11/30/15554291/wapres.dalam.60.tahun.luas.hutan.indonesia.berkurang.50.persen
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_industrial_parks_by_size
https://www.unido.org/fileadmin/user_media/Research_and_Statistics/UNIDO_IDR_2013_main_report.pdf
http://www.transformasi.org/images/publications/pdf/160616_Industrial_EN.pdf
http://www.igep.in/live/hrdpmp/hrdpmaster/igep/content/e48745/e49028/e56649/e57545/04_Dieter_Brulez_SituationIndonesiaPresentationIntConference_Indonesia.pdf
http://www.gbgindonesia.com/en/property/article/2016/indonesia_s_industrial_property_sector_rising_supply_and_demand_11690.php
http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/2016/09/17/195151226/hingga.2025.kebutuhan.rumah.di.indonesia.tembus.30.juta.unit
http://finance.detik.com/properti/2103804/jumlah-rumah-di-ri-hanya-45-juta-unit-butuh-14-juta-hunian-baru-tahun

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Maret 20, 2017 at 1:09 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

Tagged with

Forest and the Assumptions

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I am tired with another misleading assumption. I think I need to built separate tag to describe this situation.

First, open any paper, see the introduction part. We fill find some highlight or opening statement that is exaggerate as something big. For example in UK, 17% of croppable land is to grow rapeseed. This statement by simple search is true, half of croppable land is to grow wheat.

In another example, Indonesia for example, its Forest is around 111 million ha, the seoncd comes for Plantation which around 13 mil ha, and Wetland around 8 mil ha. But in Indonesia, the forest size is decreasing rapidly. So number of forest size is decreasing every years.

But making a centralized policy from statistical number is difficult. For example, we can say that majority of rice production is from Java. But in the other side, we can say that the majority of palm oil production is from Sumatra / Kalimantan.

Further we also can make claim, that palm oil productity (production per land size) is the biggest compare with other oil based plantation.

Another sample is the when claiming how big forest, we can use tropical forest categorization. With tropical forest categorization, Indonesia with Brazil has 35% share of world tropical forest. And further we can say that deforestation is contributed to 6-17% CO2

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/9305082/Rapeseed-the-unlikely-British-attraction-for-Japanese-tourists.html
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/486326/structure-jun2015final-uk-17dec15.pdf
http://www.fao.org/ag/agp/agpc/doc/counprof/Indonesia/Indones.htm
http://gapki.id/orang-bilang-perkebunan-kelapa-sawit-adalah-yang-terluas-di-dunia-benarkah/

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Maret 7, 2017 at 2:44 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

Tagged with ,

1997 vs 2015 Indonesia Forest Fire

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1997 Indonesian Forest Fires:
Size of affecting area:
0,75 million ha (Government of Indonesia)
9,75 million ha (Asian Development Bank)
13,0 million ha (Walhi)

Economic value loss:
5-6 bill USD (EEAPSEA
4.47 – 4.86 bill USD (Bappenas & ADB)

CO2 emission:
0.81-2.57 gigatonnes CO2 (13-40% annual CO2 from burning fossil fuel)

2015 Indonesian Forest Fires:
2,6 million ha
35-47 USD billion (GOI) (475 trilliun IDR)
16 bil USD (221 trilliun IDR) (World Bank), 1.9% GDP

Main cause: Slash and burn, El Nino
2015: 37% of fires in Sumatra on Pulpwood concessions according to WRI

Ref: Wiki, Guardian, DW, StraitsTimes, BBC

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Desember 18, 2015 at 11:11 am

Ditulis dalam Science

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