Anjar Priandoyo

Simple Advice for Everyone

Posts Tagged ‘Misleading

Forest and the Assumptions

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I am tired with another misleading assumption. I think I need to built separate tag to describe this situation.

First, open any paper, see the introduction part. We fill find some highlight or opening statement that is exaggerate as something big. For example in UK, 17% of croppable land is to grow rapeseed. This statement by simple search is true, half of croppable land is to grow wheat.

In another example, Indonesia for example, its Forest is around 111 million ha, the seoncd comes for Plantation which around 13 mil ha, and Wetland around 8 mil ha. But in Indonesia, the forest size is decreasing rapidly. So number of forest size is decreasing every years.

But making a centralized policy from statistical number is difficult. For example, we can say that majority of rice production is from Java. But in the other side, we can say that the majority of palm oil production is from Sumatra / Kalimantan.

Further we also can make claim, that palm oil productity (production per land size) is the biggest compare with other oil based plantation.

Another sample is the when claiming how big forest, we can use tropical forest categorization. With tropical forest categorization, Indonesia with Brazil has 35% share of world tropical forest. And further we can say that deforestation is contributed to 6-17% CO2

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/9305082/Rapeseed-the-unlikely-British-attraction-for-Japanese-tourists.html
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/486326/structure-jun2015final-uk-17dec15.pdf
http://www.fao.org/ag/agp/agpc/doc/counprof/Indonesia/Indones.htm
http://gapki.id/orang-bilang-perkebunan-kelapa-sawit-adalah-yang-terluas-di-dunia-benarkah/

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Maret 7, 2017 at 2:44 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

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Klaim kontribusi pada GDP

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I am tired with this misleading assumption.

Saya capek membaca klaim sepihak bahwa suatu pihak memiliki peranan lebih dibandingkan pihak yang lain. Contoh klaim pertamina akan peranan penerimaan negara atas setoran pajak 58T (11/01/2017) lebih lanjut menyatakan bahwa peranan GDP (konsumsi masyarakat, belanja pemerintah, investasi, dan selisih antara ekspor dikurangi impor).

Klaim lain yang sering dilakukan antara lain:
– 7-8% to GDP from oil and gas sector (IPA)
– 21-30% to state revenue (tax and non-tax)) from oil and gas sector (IPA)
– 12% foreign investment from oil and gas (PWC)
– 12.34% export oil and gas to GDP

Klaim lain yang juga terlalu sepihak
– 58% Jawa Economy contribution to GDP
Dan klaim sebelumnya dari Freeport hingga UKM

Klaim sepihak ini berbahaya. Daripada menjelaskan bahwa energi memiliki peranan penting, mengapa kita tidak bilang

Contoh UK, export terbesarnya adalah machinery/electrical (19%), sementara Indonesia terbesarnya adalah mineral/energy (30%)

http://www.pertamina.com/news-room/siaran-pers/pertamina-berperan-penting-dalam-pertumbuhan-gdp-indonesia/
http://id.beritasatu.com/energy/pertamina-turut-tingkatkan-gdp-indonesia/155119
http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2431727/opini-seperti-ini-dampak-serius-penurunan-harga-minyak-dunia
http://wartaekonomi.co.id/read/2016/08/12/109690/kontribusi-jawa-terhadap-pdb-akan-menyusut.html

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Februari 27, 2017 at 11:11 am

Ditulis dalam Science

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1997 vs 2015 Indonesia Forest Fire

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1997 Indonesian Forest Fires:
Size of affecting area:
0,75 million ha (Government of Indonesia)
9,75 million ha (Asian Development Bank)
13,0 million ha (Walhi)

Economic value loss:
5-6 bill USD (EEAPSEA
4.47 – 4.86 bill USD (Bappenas & ADB)

CO2 emission:
0.81-2.57 gigatonnes CO2 (13-40% annual CO2 from burning fossil fuel)

2015 Indonesian Forest Fires:
2,6 million ha
35-47 USD billion (GOI) (475 trilliun IDR)
16 bil USD (221 trilliun IDR) (World Bank), 1.9% GDP

Main cause: Slash and burn, El Nino
2015: 37% of fires in Sumatra on Pulpwood concessions according to WRI

Ref: Wiki, Guardian, DW, StraitsTimes, BBC

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Desember 18, 2015 at 11:11 am

Ditulis dalam Science

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