Anjar Priandoyo

Catatan Setiap Hari

Posts Tagged ‘Model

Model

leave a comment »

Akhirnya saya mengganti tag diagram menjadi model. Berikut penjelasannya.

Intinya, saya menyadari bahwa yang 3 tahun terakhir ini saya lakukan adalah meningkatkan kemampuan saya menganalisa. Pengingkatan kemampuan ini dilakukan dengan menambahkan faktor scientific approach untuk menyelesaikan masalah. Nah untuk bisa menganalisa dengan baik, maka orang harus bisa memvisualkan atau mengarticulate (describe) sesuatu yang kompleks. Catatan, ada yang bisa e.g Energy System, Environment System, ada yang tidak bisa e.g emotion.

Ambil contoh, Air Quality Models (Atmospheric dispersion modeling) definisinya adalah “mathematical simulation of how air pollutants disperse in the ambient atmosphere”

Model ini bervariasi, Sankey misalnya, baru lihat bahwa FAO juga pakai Sankey untuk menjelaskan kompleksitas supply chain agriultural product. Ini bermanfaat, untuk komunikasi publik, namun untuk memasukkannya dalam agenda riset harus dilihat lebih spesifik, pada sisi mananya.

Definisi:
– Analytical skill is the ability to visualize, articulate, conceptualize or solve both complex and uncomplicated problems by making decisions that are sensible given the available information. Such skills include demonstration of the ability to apply logical thinking to breaking complex problems into their component parts. Thinking analytically is a skill like carpentry or driving a car. It can be taught, it can be learned, and it can improve with practice. But like many other skills, such as riding a bike, it is not learned by sitting in a classroom and being told how to do it. Analysts learn by doing
– Conceptual model, a representation of a system using general rules and concepts
– Scientific model, a simplified and idealized understanding of physical systems

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Mei 16, 2017 at 1:06 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

Tagged with

Energy Transition Summary

leave a comment »

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Februari 3, 2017 at 12:29 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

Tagged with ,

ARIS Architect/Designer – One month review

leave a comment »

ARIS is one of most powerful Business Process Modelling (BPM) Tools, and luckily I have a chance to use ARIS Architect/Designer with University Edition. I got the license since 12 December 2016, and it will be expired next 12 June 2017.

At this moment, I have been using ARIS for one month, a short time, and I found that ARIS is really helpful for me in my research. My research basically is Energy Scenario analysis, so ARIS help me to visualize the complex interaction of Energy in Indonesia.

The framework that I used in align with ARIS is Multilevel Perspective (MLP) (Geels, 2002) which used to explain the energy transtion in Indonesia. This framework analyzes in three levels, Exogenous landscape, stable Regime and Niches of Innovation.

Here is some screenshot of on progress works with ARIS. So let see, I will keep updating the progress of my ARIS project.

energy-scenario

energy-structure

organization-charts

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Januari 12, 2017 at 12:37 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

Tagged with , ,

Energy Balances and Energy Transition: The Problems

leave a comment »

What is the problem with Indonesia’s energy?

  1. Energy Balances, is unhealthy, in 2004 Net Oil Importer, in 2019 predicted will be Net Gas Importer
  2. Energy Transition, is toward high carbon economy

indonesia-energy-balance

The sankey diagram created from http://sankeymatic.com/build/

sources:
‘Layer 1
Oil Production [100] Oil Energy
Oil Import [40] Oil Energy
Oil Energy [30]Oil Export
Oil Energy [110] Domestic Consumption

Gas Production [100] Gas Energy
Gas Import [10] Gas Energy
Gas Energy [50] Gas Export
Gas Energy [60] Domestic Consumption

Coal Production [100] CoalEnergy
CoalEnergy [30] Domestic Consumption
CoalEnergy [70]Coal Export

Biofuel Production [100] BioEnergy
BioEnergy [40] Domestic Consumption
BioEnergy [60]Biofuel Export

Domestic Consumption [100] Domestic Coal
Domestic Consumption [100] Domestic Oil
Domestic Consumption [40] Domestic Gas

‘Layer 2
Oil [60] Export
Gas [60] Export
Coal [60] Export
Renewable [60] Export
Oil [30] Domestic
Gas [40] Domestic
Coal [40] Domestic
Renewable [40] Domestic
Energy Import [100] Domestic

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

April 24, 2016 at 11:01 am

Ditulis dalam Science

Tagged with ,

Indonesia’s Energy Transition: Historical Perspective, Current Status, Future Outlook

leave a comment »

Step 1: Understand historical Data (Use Technological transition perspective to explain)
Wasserman et al 2015, Strunz 2014, Solomon and Krushna 2011, Ruth et al 2015, Nye 2014, Li et al 2015, Fais et al 2016, EKINS et al 2011

historical

Step 2: Perform current state analysis (Use energy modelling / LEAP)
energy2

greenhouse-world

Step 3: Analysis future scenario (Use scenario modelling / LEAP)
scenario-leap

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

April 20, 2016 at 6:41 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

Tagged with ,

Big 5 Energy: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan

leave a comment »

BRIC-framework

BCIIP

BRICI is one of trending keyword in Indonesia during 2010s. Indonesian durability due to financial crisis of 2008 can be attributed for this BRICI trend. However this trending keyword is does not last. Because in just five years, the keyword becoming Fragile Five (Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, India) by Morgan Stanley 2013. And in 2015 it become (Colombia, Mexico, Turkey, SA, Indonesia). But yeah, now the country-keyword is not interesting anymore -at least in investment/country risk. However in the other aspect such as development, the keyword is still relevant.

Let see Big 5 Energy Poverty: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan. All his 5 countries has the same inequality problem with energy, and any pro-poor growth policy is very important (Rehman et al 2012)

Image from The Language of Global Development: A misleading geography and Rehman et al 2012.

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Februari 25, 2016 at 3:25 pm

Ditulis dalam Management

Tagged with ,

What is Research

leave a comment »

saunder-research-onion

Research is about philosophies and approaches.
Some people doing basic research, while some others doing applied research. I stand up for applied research.

Image from Saunders 2009 Research Method

Written by Anjar Priandoyo

Februari 23, 2016 at 10:15 pm

Ditulis dalam Science

Tagged with ,